Estimation of Forward-Looking Relationships in Closed Form: An Application to the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Introduction to the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
I n most industrialized economies inflation tends to be pro-cyclical; that is, inflation is high during times of high economic activity. When economic activity is measured by the unemployment rate this statistical relationship is known as the Phillips curve. The Phillips curve is sometimes viewed as a menu for monetary policymakers, that is, they can choose between high inflation and low unempl...
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The paper extends Woodford’s [Optimizing models with nominal rigidities, Chapter 3 of Interest and prices: foundations of a theory of monetary policy, Princeton University, 2000; unpublished manuscript] analysis of the closed economy Phillips curve to an open economy with both commodity trade and capital mobility. We show that consumption smoothing, which comes with the opening of the capital m...
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Phillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. New Keynesian Phillips curves describe how past inflation, expected future inflation, and a measure of real marginal cost or an output gap drive the current inflation rate. This paper studies the (potential) weak identification of these curves under generalized methods of moments (GMM) and traces this syndrome...
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In most macroeconomic models, the stability of the solution path implies that the system is covariancestationary and hence admits a Wold representation. The ability to estimate this Wold representation semi-parametrically by local projections (Jordà, 2005), even when the process for the solution path is unknown or unconventional, can be exploited to estimate the model’s parameters by minimum di...
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We use the inflation premium—the difference between nominal and real interest rates—as a proxy for expected inflation in the context of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Using data from inflation-indexed and nominal bonds we estimate a forward-looking Phillips curve for the United Kingdom over the period 1985-2004. The proposed model describes UK inflation dynamics considerably better than does...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2011
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1866338